China’s growth targets cause headaches—even when met
Local officials wrestle with competing incentives
WHEN CHINA’S prime minister, Li Qiang, announced in March that the country’s GDP growth target for the year would be “around 5%”, the number seemed ambitious. After President Donald Trump announced his tariffs in April, the target seemed almost fanciful. Yet China’s economy has done surprisingly well so far this year. Exports have continued to grow and, despite low consumer confidence, retail sales have picked up. A manufacturing index published by Caixin, a business magazine, jumped to 50.4 in June from 48.3 the month before. “We are confident and capable of maintaining relatively rapid growth,” Mr Li trilled at the World Economic Forum’s recent meeting in Tianjin. Citigroup, an American bank, just raised its 2025 growth forecast from 4.2% in early April to 5%—bang in line with officialdom.
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This article appeared in the China section of the print edition under the headline “Be careful what you wish for”
From the July 5th 2025 edition
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