Graphic detail | Water fall

Why was the flooding in Texas so deadly?

A mixture of geography, catastrophic rainfall and a lack of preparedness

Video: Getty Images
More than 100 people have died in one of the worst floods to hit America in a century. Torrential rain swept through Kerr County, in central Texas, early on July 4th. Among the dead are 27 girls and staff members carried away from a Christian summer camp as the water surged. More heavy rain is forecast this week. The charts and maps below explain what made the flood so deadly.

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Texas Hill Country

Ingram

weather

station

ounty

Kerr County

Hunt

water

gauge

Hunt

water

gauge

Guadalupe

river basin

Camp

Mystic

50 km
Part of the cause was record rainfall in a particularly vulnerable area of the state. At the Ingram weather station near Camp Mystic—where the girls had been staying—more than 13cm (5 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours, nearly double the historical average for the whole month. In some nearby areas of Kerr County, as much as 25cm may have fallen in just a few hours.
The location of the downpour—at the head of the Guadalupe river—amplified its effects. Between 2.30am and 5.10am on July 4th the river rose almost nine metres (29 feet) at the Hunt water gauge near Camp Mystic. At 5.10am the river reached over 11 metres, after which the gauge stopped working for several hours. At this point more water was surging through the river than the typical flow over Niagara Falls. These levels surpassed those of a deadly flood in July 1987, when ten teenagers died while evacuating from another camp.

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas, rainfall, cm

15

July 4th 2025

12

9

2000-25

monthly

average

6

3

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

10

8

Major flooding

6

4

Moderate flooding

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA
Kerr County and the broader Hill Country region lies in “Flash Flood Alley”, a band of central Texas that curves south from Dallas through Austin, then west via San Antonio to the Mexican border. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over the cliffs and hills of the Balcones Escarpment. It then cools and condenses into heavy rain. This natural mechanism makes the region unusually prone to downpours, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. This weekend the amount of water vapour rose because of remnants from Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico on June 29th.
Top: An aerial view of the Guadalupe River, Texas after the floods; Bottom: Damaged vehicles and debris near the banks of the Guadalupe River after flooding in Ingram, Texas
Image: Getty Images; AP
The landscape compounds the danger. Semi-arid soils soak up little water. Rain races down hills into a dense network of narrow creeks, which rise quickly. When the water surges it can sweep away buildings, vehicles and people. That danger is well known to Texans: their likelihood of dying in a flood is twice that of the average American. Between 1959 and 2019 more than 1,000 people in Texas were killed in floods—the highest death toll of any state.

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States, 1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021
Despite the forecasts and its history of flooding, Kerr County appeared unprepared. Local news reports note that the area still lacks a flood-alarm system to notify residents and visitors: efforts to fund one have failed since 2018. The timing of the floods—in the middle of the night—may have made it harder to spread warnings and evacuate.
Questions are also being asked of the Trump administration and its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since January the National Weather Service (NWS) has lost around 560 staff—through sackings, early retirements and voluntary redundancies—reducing its workforce by 10%. Some of these roles now need to be rehired. The NWS’s offices in central Texas have unfilled posts for important positions, including a senior hydrologist and a warning-co-ordination meteorologist.
People watch the Guadalupe River flow over a dam in Kerrville, Texas
Image: Shutterstock
In an open letter published in May, former directors of the NWS who served between 1988 and 2022 warned that their “worst nightmare” was for staffing cuts to result in “needless loss of life”. It is not clear yet what role, if any, the budget cuts may have played. It is, however, clear that flash-flooding will continue. Basic physics means that hotter air holds more water; on a warming planet that means increases in extreme precipitation of all sorts.■

More from

Graphic detail | Water fall

Why was the flooding in Texas so deadly?

A mixture of geography, catastrophic rainfall and a lack of preparedness

Video: Getty Images
More than 100 people have died in one of the worst floods to hit America in a century. Torrential rain swept through Kerr County, in central Texas, early on July 4th. Among the dead are 27 girls and staff members carried away from a Christian summer camp as the water surged. More heavy rain is forecast this week. The charts and maps below explain what made the flood so deadly.

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Texas Hill Country

Ingram

weather

station

ounty

Kerr County

Hunt

water

gauge

Hunt

water

gauge

Guadalupe

river basin

Camp

Mystic

50 km
Part of the cause was record rainfall in a particularly vulnerable area of the state. At the Ingram weather station near Camp Mystic—where the girls had been staying—more than 13cm (5 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours, nearly double the historical average for the whole month. In some nearby areas of Kerr County, as much as 25cm may have fallen in just a few hours.
The location of the downpour—at the head of the Guadalupe river—amplified its effects. Between 2.30am and 5.10am on July 4th the river rose almost nine metres (29 feet) at the Hunt water gauge near Camp Mystic. At 5.10am the river reached over 11 metres, after which the gauge stopped working for several hours. At this point more water was surging through the river than the typical flow over Niagara Falls. These levels surpassed those of a deadly flood in July 1987, when ten teenagers died while evacuating from another camp.

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas, rainfall, cm

15

July 4th 2025

12

9

2000-25

monthly

average

6

3

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

10

8

Major flooding

6

4

Moderate flooding

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA
Kerr County and the broader Hill Country region lies in “Flash Flood Alley”, a band of central Texas that curves south from Dallas through Austin, then west via San Antonio to the Mexican border. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over the cliffs and hills of the Balcones Escarpment. It then cools and condenses into heavy rain. This natural mechanism makes the region unusually prone to downpours, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. This weekend the amount of water vapour rose because of remnants from Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico on June 29th.
Top: An aerial view of the Guadalupe River, Texas after the floods; Bottom: Damaged vehicles and debris near the banks of the Guadalupe River after flooding in Ingram, Texas
Image: Getty Images; AP
The landscape compounds the danger. Semi-arid soils soak up little water. Rain races down hills into a dense network of narrow creeks, which rise quickly. When the water surges it can sweep away buildings, vehicles and people. That danger is well known to Texans: their likelihood of dying in a flood is twice that of the average American. Between 1959 and 2019 more than 1,000 people in Texas were killed in floods—the highest death toll of any state.

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States, 1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021
Despite the forecasts and its history of flooding, Kerr County appeared unprepared. Local news reports note that the area still lacks a flood-alarm system to notify residents and visitors: efforts to fund one have failed since 2018. The timing of the floods—in the middle of the night—may have made it harder to spread warnings and evacuate.
Questions are also being asked of the Trump administration and its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since January the National Weather Service (NWS) has lost around 560 staff—through sackings, early retirements and voluntary redundancies—reducing its workforce by 10%. Some of these roles now need to be rehired. The NWS’s offices in central Texas have unfilled posts for important positions, including a senior hydrologist and a warning-co-ordination meteorologist.
People watch the Guadalupe River flow over a dam in Kerrville, Texas
Image: Shutterstock
In an open letter published in May, former directors of the NWS who served between 1988 and 2022 warned that their “worst nightmare” was for staffing cuts to result in “needless loss of life”. It is not clear yet what role, if any, the budget cuts may have played. It is, however, clear that flash-flooding will continue. Basic physics means that hotter air holds more water; on a warming planet that means increases in extreme precipitation of all sorts.■

More from

Graphic detail | Water fall

Why was the flooding in Texas so deadly?

A mixture of geography, catastrophic rainfall and a lack of preparedness

Video: Getty Images
More than 100 people have died in one of the worst floods to hit America in a century. Torrential rain swept through Kerr County, in central Texas, early on July 4th. Among the dead are 27 girls and staff members carried away from a Christian summer camp as the water surged. More heavy rain is forecast this week. The charts and maps below explain what made the flood so deadly.

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Texas Hill Country

Ingram

weather

station

ounty

Kerr County

Hunt

water

gauge

Hunt

water

gauge

Guadalupe

river basin

Camp

Mystic

50 km
Part of the cause was record rainfall in a particularly vulnerable area of the state. At the Ingram weather station near Camp Mystic—where the girls had been staying—more than 13cm (5 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours, nearly double the historical average for the whole month. In some nearby areas of Kerr County, as much as 25cm may have fallen in just a few hours.
The location of the downpour—at the head of the Guadalupe river—amplified its effects. Between 2.30am and 5.10am on July 4th the river rose almost nine metres (29 feet) at the Hunt water gauge near Camp Mystic. At 5.10am the river reached over 11 metres, after which the gauge stopped working for several hours. At this point more water was surging through the river than the typical flow over Niagara Falls. These levels surpassed those of a deadly flood in July 1987, when ten teenagers died while evacuating from another camp.

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas, rainfall, cm

15

July 4th 2025

12

9

2000-25

monthly

average

6

3

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

10

8

Major flooding

6

4

Moderate flooding

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA
Kerr County and the broader Hill Country region lies in “Flash Flood Alley”, a band of central Texas that curves south from Dallas through Austin, then west via San Antonio to the Mexican border. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over the cliffs and hills of the Balcones Escarpment. It then cools and condenses into heavy rain. This natural mechanism makes the region unusually prone to downpours, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. This weekend the amount of water vapour rose because of remnants from Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico on June 29th.
Top: An aerial view of the Guadalupe River, Texas after the floods; Bottom: Damaged vehicles and debris near the banks of the Guadalupe River after flooding in Ingram, Texas
Image: Getty Images; AP
The landscape compounds the danger. Semi-arid soils soak up little water. Rain races down hills into a dense network of narrow creeks, which rise quickly. When the water surges it can sweep away buildings, vehicles and people. That danger is well known to Texans: their likelihood of dying in a flood is twice that of the average American. Between 1959 and 2019 more than 1,000 people in Texas were killed in floods—the highest death toll of any state.

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States, 1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021
Despite the forecasts and its history of flooding, Kerr County appeared unprepared. Local news reports note that the area still lacks a flood-alarm system to notify residents and visitors: efforts to fund one have failed since 2018. The timing of the floods—in the middle of the night—may have made it harder to spread warnings and evacuate.
Questions are also being asked of the Trump administration and its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since January the National Weather Service (NWS) has lost around 560 staff—through sackings, early retirements and voluntary redundancies—reducing its workforce by 10%. Some of these roles now need to be rehired. The NWS’s offices in central Texas have unfilled posts for important positions, including a senior hydrologist and a warning-co-ordination meteorologist.
People watch the Guadalupe River flow over a dam in Kerrville, Texas
Image: Shutterstock
In an open letter published in May, former directors of the NWS who served between 1988 and 2022 warned that their “worst nightmare” was for staffing cuts to result in “needless loss of life”. It is not clear yet what role, if any, the budget cuts may have played. It is, however, clear that flash-flooding will continue. Basic physics means that hotter air holds more water; on a warming planet that means increases in extreme precipitation of all sorts.■

More from

Graphic detail | Water fall

Why was the flooding in Texas so deadly?

A mixture of geography, catastrophic rainfall and a lack of preparedness

Video: Getty Images
More than 100 people have died in one of the worst floods to hit America in a century. Torrential rain swept through Kerr County, in central Texas, early on July 4th. Among the dead are 27 girls and staff members carried away from a Christian summer camp as the water surged. More heavy rain is forecast this week. The charts and maps below explain what made the flood so deadly.

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Ingram weather station

nty

Kerr County

Hunt water gauge

Guadalupe river

Camp Mystic

Guadalupe

river basin

50 km

Flash Flood Alley

Texas

Texas Hill Country

Texas Hill Country

Ingram

weather

station

ounty

Kerr County

Hunt

water

gauge

Hunt

water

gauge

Guadalupe

river basin

Camp

Mystic

50 km
Part of the cause was record rainfall in a particularly vulnerable area of the state. At the Ingram weather station near Camp Mystic—where the girls had been staying—more than 13cm (5 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours, nearly double the historical average for the whole month. In some nearby areas of Kerr County, as much as 25cm may have fallen in just a few hours.
The location of the downpour—at the head of the Guadalupe river—amplified its effects. Between 2.30am and 5.10am on July 4th the river rose almost nine metres (29 feet) at the Hunt water gauge near Camp Mystic. At 5.10am the river reached over 11 metres, after which the gauge stopped working for several hours. At this point more water was surging through the river than the typical flow over Niagara Falls. These levels surpassed those of a deadly flood in July 1987, when ten teenagers died while evacuating from another camp.

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas,

rainfall, cm

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

15

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

July 4th 2025

10

12

8

9

2000-25

monthly

average

Major flooding

6

6

4

Moderate flooding

3

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA

Historical proportions

Ingram weather station Texas, rainfall, cm

15

July 4th 2025

12

9

2000-25

monthly

average

6

3

0

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

Guadalupe River at Hunt,

water level, July 2025, metres

12

11.4 metres at 05:10am

10

8

Major flooding

6

4

Moderate flooding

2.7 metres at 02:30am

2

0

2nd

3rd

4th

Source: NOAA
Kerr County and the broader Hill Country region lies in “Flash Flood Alley”, a band of central Texas that curves south from Dallas through Austin, then west via San Antonio to the Mexican border. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico rises over the cliffs and hills of the Balcones Escarpment. It then cools and condenses into heavy rain. This natural mechanism makes the region unusually prone to downpours, says Hatim Sharif, a hydrologist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. This weekend the amount of water vapour rose because of remnants from Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in Mexico on June 29th.
Top: An aerial view of the Guadalupe River, Texas after the floods; Bottom: Damaged vehicles and debris near the banks of the Guadalupe River after flooding in Ingram, Texas
Image: Getty Images; AP
The landscape compounds the danger. Semi-arid soils soak up little water. Rain races down hills into a dense network of narrow creeks, which rise quickly. When the water surges it can sweep away buildings, vehicles and people. That danger is well known to Texans: their likelihood of dying in a flood is twice that of the average American. Between 1959 and 2019 more than 1,000 people in Texas were killed in floods—the highest death toll of any state.

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States, 1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021

Watermark

Deaths from flooding, 1959-2019

200

400

600

800

Texas

1,069

Source: "Analysis of flood fatalities in the United States,

1959–2019", by Z. Han and H. Sharif, 2021
Despite the forecasts and its history of flooding, Kerr County appeared unprepared. Local news reports note that the area still lacks a flood-alarm system to notify residents and visitors: efforts to fund one have failed since 2018. The timing of the floods—in the middle of the night—may have made it harder to spread warnings and evacuate.
Questions are also being asked of the Trump administration and its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Since January the National Weather Service (NWS) has lost around 560 staff—through sackings, early retirements and voluntary redundancies—reducing its workforce by 10%. Some of these roles now need to be rehired. The NWS’s offices in central Texas have unfilled posts for important positions, including a senior hydrologist and a warning-co-ordination meteorologist.
People watch the Guadalupe River flow over a dam in Kerrville, Texas
Image: Shutterstock
In an open letter published in May, former directors of the NWS who served between 1988 and 2022 warned that their “worst nightmare” was for staffing cuts to result in “needless loss of life”. It is not clear yet what role, if any, the budget cuts may have played. It is, however, clear that flash-flooding will continue. Basic physics means that hotter air holds more water; on a warming planet that means increases in extreme precipitation of all sorts.■

More from