Although a general election is not likely until 2029—a lifetime in political terms—the latest opinion polls show that British politics are becoming ever more fragmented. Over the past year support has haemorrhaged away from Labour under Sir Keir Starmer, the prime minister, with the primary beneficiary being Reform UK. A simple calculation based on uniform national swing suggests that if an election were held tomorrow Reform would have a one-in-five chance of winning a majority in the Commons. And if Reform banded together with the listless Conservatives, they would have a four-in-five chance of a majority. By contrast the centre-left parties together have just a one-in-30 chance of winning. Explore how voting is changing across different demographic groups in Britain below.
Labour’s decline in popularity is perhaps most acute with the young. At the election in 2024 Labour won nearly half the ballots of those aged under 35. Today they hold onto around one-third, as young voters are splintering both rightwards to Reform UK and leftwards towards the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Reform is now the most favoured party among people between 45 and 64 years old and is also now leading among the Conservative Party’s most dependable supporters: people aged 65 and older.
In 2024 Labour gained back swathes of seats from the Conservatives from the so-called red wall in the Midlands and the north of England. Based on current polling many of the 201 seats they won in those two areas would be lost once again if there was an election held today. Labour also faces a renewed challenge north of the border. The 37 seats it scooped up in July last year are vulnerable to a resurgent Scottish National Party.
Overall there are only slight differences between the voting behaviour of men and women in Britain. But Reform UK would be doing even better in the polls if it could improve its blokeish image. At the general election in 2024 the party attracted 17% of male voters but just 12% of women. That gap persists.
Since 2023 Reform UK has been hoovering up support among blue-collar workers, for whom their anti-EU and anti-immigration sentiment resonates. As well as shedding droves of blue-collar voters, Labour are polling poorly among white-collar voters, too. Both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are increasingly attractive destinations for better-educated Britons.
Getting re-elected requires both attracting new voters and, crucially, holding onto the folk that have cast a ballot for you in the past. But British voters are an increasingly fickle bunch who do not show the loyalty that was common a generation ago. Just half of people who voted Conservative in 2019 did so again in 2024. On current trends Labour may well have a similar problem at the next general election.
Sources: British Election Study; Deltapoll; Find Out Now; House of Commons Library; Ipsos; More In Common; Omnisis; Opinium; Politico; Redfield and Wilton; Savanta; Stack Data Exchange; Survation; Techne; UK Polling Report; YouGov; The Economist